SMM

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes on April 21, 2025

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets were affected by multiple factors, showing an overall fluctuating trend. The US announced the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on several countries, sparking market concerns, leading to fluctuations in the US dollar index and a rise in risk-averse sentiment, which put pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that there would be no interest rate cuts for the time being and warned of the dual risks of "rising unemployment and high inflation" facing the US economy, dampening market expectations for liquidity easing and further increasing market uncertainty. In the domestic tin ore market, the supply-demand pattern is tight. In terms of supply, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have pulled back, constrained by tight raw material supply, especially due to the delayed resumption of production in Myanmar and the recent 7.9-magnitude earthquake, which intensified market panic over tin ore supply. On the demand side, downstream solder companies are making just-in-time procurement along with some restocking, but the "trade-in" policy and high production schedules for home appliances provide potential support for demand. The operating rate of the tin solder industry rebounded significantly to 75.81% in March and is expected to remain at a high level in April. Although the news of the Bisie tin mine resuming operations once boosted market confidence, overall, SHFE tin prices are likely to fluctuate weakly within the range of 252,000-266,000 yuan/mt in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor the situation in the DRC, the resumption of production in Wa State, and macro policy directions, and operate cautiously to avoid chasing high risks. In summary, SHFE tin prices may maintain considerable fluctuations in the short term, and investors are advised to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and operate cautiously.