As of Monday, September 9, SMM national copper stocks in major regions sharply decreased by 24,400 mt from Thursday to 231,300 mt, continuing the trend of destocking with an accelerated pace; however, total inventory was still 136,200 mt higher from last year's 95,100 mt.
In detail, Shanghai's inventory fell by 11,000 mt from Thursday to 157,700 mt, and Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 4,400 mt to 25,900 mt. Over the weekend, both domestic and imported copper arrivals were limited, and downstream consumption was moderate, resulting in continued inventory declines in these regions. Guangdong's inventory dropped by 8,800 mt to 43,300 mt, with a noticeable acceleration in pace. This was due to reduced arrivals and strong outflows from warehouses (local downstream purchases increased after copper prices fell, and some stocks were transported to Jiangxi). This is reflected in Guangdong's average daily outflows from warehouses, which hit a new high for the year.
Looking ahead, we maintain last Friday's view: SMM understands that this week’s imported copper arrivals will increase WoW, but domestic copper arrivals will remain low. The total supply for the week is expected to slightly decrease WoW. On the downstream consumption side, with copper prices falling significantly and the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, downstream procurement is expected to increase. Therefore, we believe this week will see reduced supply and increased demand, and weekly inventory is expected to continue decreasing.
