By January 2025, the market has entered the final stage of winter stockpiling, and there is significant attention on this year's winter stockpiling progress. To this end, I conducted a survey on the nationwide winter stockpiling situation and traders' attitudes toward it. The details are as follows:
According to SMM survey data, the overall willingness for winter stockpiling in the market this year was poor. 47.4% of traders stated that they would not engage in winter stockpiling this year; 21.1% of traders had already conducted a small amount of winter stockpiling; 26.3% of traders indicated that they would consider small-scale stockpiling if prices fell below 3,200 yuan/mt; and 5.3% of traders said they would only consider stockpiling if prices dropped below 3,000 yuan/mt.
Overall, due to the poor winter stockpiling performance in recent years, traders' willingness for winter stockpiling was generally low. Coupled with the frequent "default" incidents in 2024, traders have strengthened their risk control intentions. The market is more inclined to increase winter stockpiling volumes only if there is a significant improvement in the market after the Chinese New Year. Traders who have already engaged in winter stockpiling mostly hedge risks through futures, keeping risks within a controllable range.
Appendix: Summary of Steel Mill Winter Stockpiling Policies
