》Check SMM Aluminum Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis
SMM, January 8:
The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2502 contract opened at 19,735 yuan/mt, with an intraday high of 19,790 yuan/mt and a low of 19,680 yuan/mt, closing at 19,715 yuan/mt, up 0.31%. Trading volume was 97,000 lots, and open interest was 126,000 lots.
SMM Comments: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost consumption, while uncertainty over the US Fed's interest rate cut pace has increased. Fundamentals side, although multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production in December, and some capacity resumption progress stalled, production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, market demand continued to weaken during the off-season, with operating rates in the aluminum processing industry declining steadily, and some aluminum processing plants nearing holiday shutdowns. Overall, fundamentals side, supply-side pressure slightly eased, but weak demand during the off-season and the risk of inventory buildup in social stocks continued to grow. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward. In the long term, attention should be paid to the US Fed's future stance on interest rate cuts and changes in the pace of consumption recovery.
The most-traded alumina 2502 contract opened at 4,278 yuan/mt, with a high of 4,312 yuan/mt and a low of 4,095 yuan/mt, closing at 4,128 yuan/mt, down 3.12%. Trading volume was 237,000 lots, and open interest was 104,000 lots.
SMM Comments: Recently, weekly operating rates of alumina showed a slight rebound, and alumina supply increased slightly. With technological transformations and production cuts at aluminum smelters in Guangxi and Sichuan, alumina demand slightly declined, and the previously tight alumina supply situation improved. By the end of December, alumina raw material inventories at aluminum smelters slightly rebounded, while downstream restocking and purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Acceptance of high-priced spot alumina decreased, and with reports of some low-price transactions, suppliers' willingness to sell increased. In the short term, spot alumina prices are likely to maintain a slight downward trend.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
