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SMM, January 9:
Raw Material Market:
Silica: This week, silica prices remained largely stable. As the Chinese New Year approaches, some mines focused on fulfilling existing orders due to transportation and mining restrictions, resulting in fewer new orders. Downstream silicon metal manufacturers showed a noticeable recovery in silica procurement demand, which may pick up around March. However, with some silicon enterprises in southwest and north-west China planning furnace shutdowns for maintenance, downstream silicon metal operating rates continued to decline slightly, weakening silica demand support. Silica prices are expected to remain weakly stable before the holiday. Currently, the mine-mouth price of low-grade silica in Yunnan is 340-350 yuan/mt. High-grade silica mine-mouth prices are 360-390 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, 420-450 yuan/mt in Hubei, and 440-460 yuan/mt in Jiangxi.
Silicon Coal: This week, silicon coal prices declined in certain regions. In January 2025, silicon coal prices in Xinjiang dropped significantly due to weak downstream silicon metal procurement demand and sluggish sales, coupled with previously high prices. At the beginning of January, Xinjiang silicon coal prices saw a substantial decrease. In other regions like Ningxia and Gansu, although coking coal prices declined recently, leading to cost-side price adjustments, silicon coal enterprises have not yet announced price reductions. Currently, silicon coal prices in Ningxia and Gansu remain largely stable. The ex-factory price of silicon coal (granular) in Ningxia is 1,420-1,530 yuan/mt, while mixed silicon coal is priced at 1,260-1,280 yuan/mt. In Xinjiang, silicon coal prices are 1,800-1,900 yuan/mt, with an average decrease of 275 yuan/mt. Non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang is priced at 1,150-1,170 yuan/mt, and silicon coal in Shaanxi is priced at 940-960 yuan/mt.
Electrodes: This week, electrode prices remained stable. The market demand for electrodes used in silicon production remained sluggish, and downstream silicon metal operations continued at relatively low levels. Pre-holiday raw material procurement has mostly concluded, and demand for electrodes used in silicon production remains insufficient. Although cost-side prices have seen slight recoveries recently, the weak and sluggish downstream silicon metal market has limited upward price movement for electrodes. Prices are expected to remain largely stable. Currently, the ex-factory price of ordinary power carbon electrodes (diameter 960-1,100mm) is 7,400-7,800 yuan/mt. Ordinary power graphite electrodes (diameter 960-1,100mm) are priced at 11,000-12,000 yuan/mt, while those with a diameter of 1,272mm are priced at 12,000-13,000 yuan/mt, and those with a diameter of 1,320mm are priced at 13,000-14,000 yuan/mt.
Petroleum Coke: During the week, petroleum coke prices turned upward as refinery shipments improved. Prices rose due to reduced supply, and with the Chinese New Year approaching, some enterprises maintained slight stockpiling demand. In the short term, petroleum coke prices are expected to rise slightly. As of now, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries is approximately 1,907 yuan/mt, up 2.45% compared to last Thursday. Meanwhile, Formosa coke prices range from 1,050 to 1,100 yuan, slightly declining due to weak downstream demand and sufficient port supply.
Silicon Metal Market:
The silicon metal market continued its downward trend this week. As of January 9, above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was priced at 11,000-11,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. #441 silicon was priced at 11,400-11,500 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. #421 silicon was priced at 11,600-11,900 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. #3303 silicon was priced at 12,000-12,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the Si2502 contract continued to decline during the week, hitting a low of 10,410 yuan/mt. Futures prices fell, leading to a higher spot-futures price spread, but they still held a significant price advantage compared to silicon enterprise quotations. Amid low-priced supplies, silicon enterprise quotations decreased but remained difficult to transact. Some enterprises opted to maintain stable quotations or temporarily refrain from quoting. In terms of market transactions, downstream users released orders as needed, and the market transaction atmosphere remained average. Spot silicon prices continuously fell below psychological expectations, affecting some traders' willingness to stockpile.
On the demand side, polysilicon operating rates remained basically stable this week, with polysilicon enterprises gradually fulfilling pre-holiday orders. Powdering enterprises mostly conducted stockpiling based on futures prices. Silicone operating rates also remained stable this week, with no new production cut plans from monomer plants next week. In the short term, silicone monomer operating rates are expected to remain stable. Regarding monomer plant procurement, due to regional and cost differences among suppliers and varying funding needs, low-titanium #421 silicon quotations showed significant price disparities. Aluminum alloy operating rates remained basically stable this week. Some secondary aluminum alloy enterprises plan to start their holidays around January 22, with operating rates expected to decline in late January.
Downstream silicon users released small-batch stockpiling demand before the holiday, which is expected to conclude next week. On the supply side, low silicon prices reduced production willingness among silicon enterprises. Industrial silicon operating rates may continue to decline before and after the Chinese New Year. With persistently low silicon prices, the silicon industry is likely to undergo destocking in February. Given the high inventory levels in the industry, which require time to digest, and the pending recovery of polysilicon operating rates, silicon prices are expected to remain stagnant at low levels in the short term.
Polysilicon Market:
Polysilicon: This week, mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging material were 39-45 yuan/kg, while N-type dense material prices were 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices rose slightly this week, mainly reflected in the continued increase in N-type recharging material quotations. However, it should be noted that the latest quotations only resulted in small transactions, with limited market representativeness. Mainstream downstream order-signing enterprises remained in a wait-and-see mode. In January, polysilicon production schedules are expected to continue declining, involving production cuts at 2-3 enterprises, with production expected to decrease by 3,000 mt.
Silicon Wafers: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.1-1.18 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.2-1.35 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.42-1.55 yuan/piece. Prices for all silicon wafer sizes rose this week, mainly reflected in higher quotations. The sentiment for price increases was consistent, with silicon wafer manufacturers refraining from offering low prices for new orders, while historical low-price orders were still being fulfilled. Silicon wafer enterprise profits improved, and two additional integrated enterprises planned to increase production this week. However, the extent of production increases before and after the Chinese New Year will depend on subsequent worker recruitment conditions.
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