SMM, January 9:
Price Review:
As of this Thursday, the SMM regional weighted index stood at 5,408 yuan/mt, down 267 yuan/mt WoW. Among them, Shanxi reported 5,400-5,460 yuan/mt, down 260 yuan/mt WoW; Henan reported 5,230-5,330 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt WoW; Shanxi reported 5,200-5,400 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt WoW; Guangxi reported 5,600-5,680 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt WoW; Guizhou reported 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt WoW; and Bayuquan reported 5,860-5,940 yuan/mt.
Overseas Market:
As of January 9, 2025, FOB Western Australia alumina prices were $681/mt, with ocean freight rates at $21.90/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.35, translating to an external selling price of approximately 5,919 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, 511 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed. This week, a new overseas spot alumina transaction was reported: on January 3, 30,000 mt of alumina was transacted at $681/mt FOB Western Australia, with shipment scheduled for early March, up $0.25/mt from the previous FOB Western Australia alumina spot transaction price of $680.75/mt on December 16.
Domestic Market:
According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the national weekly operating rate of alumina increased by 0.49 percentage points WoW to 86.27%. Among them, the weekly operating rate of alumina in Shandong remained flat WoW at 92.11%; Shanxi's weekly operating rate increased by 2 percentage points WoW to 79.40%; Henan's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 70.00%; and Guangxi's weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 93.93%. During the period, sporadic low-priced spot alumina transactions were observed in the alumina market, with the transaction price center significantly shifting downward compared to the previous period. This week, Shanxi saw spot alumina transactions of 2,000 mt at a transaction price of 4,850 yuan/mt; Henan recorded spot alumina transactions of 9,000 mt at transaction prices of 4,880-5,300 yuan/mt; and Guizhou reported spot alumina transactions of 2,000 mt at a transaction price of 5,500 yuan/mt.
Overall:
This week, the weekly operating rate of alumina continued to increase slightly, while demand remained relatively stable. With low-priced transactions gradually emerging in the market, some suppliers became more active in selling, leading to an increase in the availability of spot alumina in the market and a wider discount to online prices for spot transactions. In the short term, some alumina capacity in Shanxi is expected to resume production, with supply anticipated to increase. On the demand side, aluminum operating rates remain relatively stable. The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus in fundamentals, and spot alumina prices are likely to continue their downward trend in the short term.
