SMM, January 3:
Price: Macro side, before Trump's inauguration on January 20, the macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. The market is already pricing in a series of political and economic policies after Trump's assumption of office. Coupled with the US initial jobless claims hitting the lowest level since November, indicating that the labour market remains robust, the US dollar is fluctuating upward. After the previous zinc short squeeze ended, the price showed a significant willingness to correct downward. The overall price center shifted lower, but the downward momentum was hindered near 24,000 yuan/mt. The main reason is the abnormal destocking in social inventory during the Chinese New Year break cycle, which led to insufficient momentum for further entry of bearish funds. Zinc prices may show signs of stabilizing. However, from the fundamentals side, the tight supply of ore has further eased. With smelters' raw material inventories rising to a conventional level of over 27 days and the increase in port ore volumes, processing fees rebounded again. In the long term, under the background of gradually alleviating supply tightness, zinc may serve as a short allocation option. On the consumption side, there is overall divergence. Galvanizing saw a further decline in operating rates as small and medium-sized enterprises in the north gradually went on holiday. Die-casting and zinc oxide sectors, due to mainstream enterprises preparing for the holiday, actively increased production to stockpile finished product inventories, leading to a noticeable rise in overall operating rates. It is expected that as the Chinese New Year approaches, more end-users and downstream enterprises will go on holiday, further reducing consumption. In the absence of significant macro changes, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate downward as the main trend.
(The above information is based on market communication and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make cautious decisions and not replace independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.)
