SMM Weekly Review: Module Demand Remains Strong with Price Increases, Upstream Sentiment Weak
Polysilicon: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 39-45 yuan/kg, and for N-type dense polysilicon, they were 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable this week, with new monthly market negotiations and order signings gradually unfolding. Early in the week, the exploratory sentiment was weak. Wafer companies faced certain resistance when considering production ramp-up, including the window period and worker recruitment, which may fall short of previous market expectations. Polysilicon enterprises faced sales pressure due to inventory and old stock pressures.
Polysilicon: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon were 39-45 yuan/kg, and for N-type dense polysilicon 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained stable this week, with new monthly market negotiations and order signings gradually unfolding. In the early part of the week, the exploratory sentiment was weak. Wafer companies faced certain resistance in terms of the consideration window period and labor recruitment, which may result in lower-than-expected production. Polysilicon companies faced sales pressure due to inventory and old stock pressures.
Wafer: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm wafers were priced at 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.35-1.4 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.5-1.55 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable this week, with some companies testing a price of 1.45 yuan/piece for 210R wafers, but no actual transactions have taken place yet. Due to considerations such as the rush installation window, cost-effectiveness of starting production, and labor issues, April wafer production may fall short of expectations.
Solar Cell: This week, the increase in solar cell prices narrowed, but prices remained firm. 183N and 210N cells saw supplementary increases, with current mainstream transaction prices at 0.3 yuan/W. 210RN cell prices stabilized at 0.33-0.34 yuan/W, and cell deliveries remained tight. As the April module production schedule approaches, back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream remain intense. Downstream module manufacturers, aiming to control costs, are putting pressure on upstream prices. There is still an expectation for an increase in April module production, but the room for further cell price increases is limited.
Module: This week, module prices continued to rise. Distributed N-type 182 modules were currently priced at 0.766-0.774 yuan/W, with the average price increasing by 0.023 yuan/W from last Friday. Distributed N-type 210 modules were priced at 0.772-0.78 yuan/W, with the average price increasing by 0.014 yuan/W from last Friday. Centralized N-type 182 modules were priced at 0.704-0.722 yuan/W, with the average price increasing by 0.004 yuan/W from last Friday. Centralized N-type 210 modules were priced at 0.719-0.737 yuan/W, with the average price increasing by 0.004 yuan/W from last Friday. The upward momentum in module prices this week slightly narrowed compared to last week. Overall, leading module manufacturers, influenced by the 430 rush for installations, have been focusing on delivering distributed orders, prioritizing higher-priced orders. This week, several leading manufacturers showed a high level of consistency, raising distributed module quotations to around 0.8 yuan/W. However, the transaction prices followed slowly, and there was a significant price gradient in the distributed module market. Generally, 0.8 yuan/W or even higher individual orders mainly came from distributors, while the high-end transaction prices for distributed modules from leading large factories were around 0.78 yuan/W.
End-user: From March 10 to March 16, 2025, SMM statistics showed that multiple companies, including Jinko Solar, LONGi, Chint New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., and GCL System Integration Technology Co., Ltd., won a total of 33 sections of PV module projects. Among these, 17 projects disclosed their installed capacity. This week, the procurement and bidding included N-type TOPCon PV modules. The winning bid prices ranged from 0.69-0.80 yuan/W; the weighted average price for the week was 0.69 yuan/W, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/W from last week. The total procurement capacity was 473.21 MW, a reduction of 32,102 MW from last week. The clear N-type module procurement capacity for the week was approximately 178.61 MW, accounting for 37.74%.
EVA Film: This week, the mainstream transaction prices for PV-grade EVA were 11,550-11,900 yuan/mt. The prices for foaming and cable grades also increased slightly, driven by the PV-grade EVA. Some petrochemical plants extended their maintenance, alleviating the tight spot supply of PV-grade EVA resin, but the overall market still showed an undersupply situation. On the demand side, the "430" and "531" rush for installations led to strong demand for spot goods from domestic distributed projects, driving up module production. Despite robust downstream demand, the increase in PV-grade EVA prices may be constrained by the cost pressure on downstream film. It is expected that PV-grade EVA prices will consolidate at a high level in the near term.
EVA Film: Recently, the mainstream transaction prices for EVA film were 13,300-13,500 yuan/mt, and for EPE film 15,200-15,500 yuan/mt. Cost side, the high prices of PV-grade EVA provided cost support for the increase in film prices. On the demand side, the "rush for installations" in the domestic market led to a surge in demand for distributed PV, driving up module production. With robust downstream demand and severe cost pressure on films, it is expected that film prices will continue to rise, driven by both cost and demand factors.
PV Glass: This week, PV glass quotations remained stable. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass was 14.0 yuan/m², with the mainstream transaction price at 13.5 yuan/m². The mainstream quotation for 3.2mm single-layer coated glass was 22.5 yuan/m², and for 2.0mm backside glass, it was 12.0 yuan/m². This week, the domestic market transactions were stable. Approaching the end of March, most module companies focused on subsequent glass prices. On the supply side, a 800 mt/day furnace in Jiangsu entered cold repair, slightly reducing the weekly supply. However, there are plans for new furnaces to start production, maintaining an overall growth trend in supply. On the demand side, recent module production schedules have been steady with slight increases, and April production is expected to rise significantly. As the raw material inventory of module companies is about to be depleted, subsequent order volumes are expected to increase, leading to an anticipated rise in new order prices in April under the undersupply situation.
High-purity Quartz Sand: This week, the quotation range for domestic high-purity quartz sand remained stable, with the center of medium-layer sand prices increasing. Current market quotations are as follows: inner-layer sand at 65,000-75,000 yuan/mt, medium-layer sand at 35,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 20,000-25,000 yuan/mt. Recent domestic sand company quotations have increased slightly, but the recent decline in crucible transaction centers, due to weak demand and high inventory levels, has strengthened resistance to raw material price hikes. Additionally, crucible companies have not yet fully consumed their existing raw material inventories, and the recent increase in synthetic and imported sand supplies has not significantly boosted demand for domestic sand. It is expected that price negotiations will continue to dominate.
Backsheet: This week, PV backsheet prices remained low and stable. The market price for white CPC backsheet - double fluorine coating was around 4.9-5.2 yuan/m², and for transparent CPC backsheet - double fluorine coating, it was around 11.3-12.3 yuan/m², with a price decrease of 0.05 yuan/m². Backsheet market demand remained weak. Approaching the end of the month, new monthly orders began, but the continuous weakening of demand for single-glass modules suggests that April backsheet orders will not see significant growth. Overall, industry production is expected to maintain March levels, with the entire industry continuing to operate at extremely low levels.
