Metals market: As of midday close, base metals fell across the board. Shanghai tin fell 2.08%, Shanghai nickel fell 1.59%, Shanghai copper, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai lead fell within 1%. The main alumina futures fell 1.1%. The main industrial silicon contract fell 0.11%. The main lithium carbonate futures contract rose 0.3%. The black system is mostly green, the iron ore is flat at 949 yuan / ton, the thread rises slightly, and the hot coil and stainless steel fall slightly. In terms of double coke, coking coal and coke both fell within 0.6%. In terms of external metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. London zinc fell 1.59%, London tin fell 1.04%, London aluminum, London nickel, London lead and London copper fell within 0.8%. In terms of precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.28% and COMEX silver fell 0.75%. In terms of domestic precious metals, as of the close at noon, Shanghai gold fell 0.25%, and Shanghai silver fell 1.07%. In addition, as of noon closing, the main futures of European line container shipping were reported at 1791 points, up 2.98%.
Spot and fundamentals:
Copper: Guangdong's inventory continued to increase after returning over the weekend, and has risen for 3 consecutive years, and the increase in arrivals and the decrease in shipments are the main reasons. This week, most traders and downstream have been on holiday, and only a few companies have sporadic purchases, and the market is very cold. As of 11 o'clock, the contract for the month is 50 yuan/ton, Pingshui copper is 0 yuan/ton, and wet copper is 200 yuan/ton......" Click to view details Nickel: On February 5, Jinchuan premium was reported at 3900-4200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 4050 yuan/ton, and the average price was increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the Russian nickel premium was quoted at -100 to 0 yuan/ton, with an average price of -50 yuan/ton, which was 50 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. Nickel prices fell sharply this morning, and the spot premium showed a slight recovery overall, mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, and some manufacturers and freight have been on holiday
Macro:
On the US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index was at 104.06, up 0.09%. Data released by the Labor Department on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 353,000 in January, almost double the 180,000 forecasted by analysts in the survey. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: "The labor market is still very healthy, and we are not ready to say that we have achieved a soft landing." Inflation is expected to continue to decline in the first half of this year due to base effects. Almost all 19 policymakers agree that a rate cut this year is appropriate. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interview with "60 Minutes" aired, during which host Pelley asked Powell: In the Fed's forecast last December, this year's rate cut will be about 4.6%, is it still possible? Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that these projections were made in December last year, these are individual projections of participants, this is not the committee's plan, and we will update them at the March meeting. Powell said Fed rate-setters still expect three rate cuts of about 25 basis points this year. At its December meeting, Fed rate-setters on average expected a 75 basis point rate cut this year. In the interview, which was recorded last Thursday, Powell said that while the new projections won't be available until March 20, "nothing in the meantime makes me think people are going to change their forecasts significantly." "If the economy weakens, then we could cut rates sooner, maybe sooner," he said. If the economy proves to be more persistent, if inflation proves to be more persistent, that could require us to cut rates later, maybe more slowly. Markets await the speeches of several Fed officials this week for further clues on rate cuts
Domestic: The "doubled" RRR cut has been delivered. Different from the two RRR cuts last year, the policy of reducing deposit reserves by 0.5 percentage points was implemented today, releasing more than 1 trillion yuan of long-term funds. Industry insiders believe that the RRR cut has effectively made up for the liquidity gap before the Spring Festival, and sufficient liquidity supply will also help stabilize money market interest rates and create space for the real economy to reduce costs. With the implementation of the RRR cut as a heavyweight monetary policy tool, market participants also believe that multiple policy effects will be released. For example, it has fundamentally boosted market confidence and sent a signal to the market that macro policy regulation and control will be intensified at the beginning of the year. Moreover, the RRR cut is also expected to form a synergy with the previous policies to create a suitable liquidity environment for the subsequent series of policies to stabilize demand and growth. 》Click to view details Meng Wei, director of the Department of Laws and Regulations of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that this year, we will increase support for key private investment projects. From the key private investment projects in various places, a number of projects that meet the policy requirements, have a large investment scale, and are highly demonstrative will be selected on a regular basis, and included in the national key private investment project database. At the same time, promote projects to banks and other financial institutions and increase financing support; Incorporate eligible projects into the national land use guarantee mechanism for major national projects, and strengthen the guarantee of land elements; Promote coordination and linkage among all localities and speed up the handling of preliminary procedures. We will take multiple measures to further optimize the private investment environment, enhance the willingness of enterprises to invest, and stimulate the innovation and development vitality of social investment. The central bank carried out a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 100 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.95%, the same as before. Today, 500 billion yuan of reverse repurchase is due. Macro: The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for January 2024 released today recorded 52.7, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month and the second highest in the past six months, indicating that the growth momentum of the service sector remained strong in the first month of 2024. Today, Russia will also release data such as Russia's Markit services PMI for January, Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for December, the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for February, the final Markit services PMI for January in the United Kingdom, and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for January in the United States. Crude oil: Oil prices fluctuated in a narrow range on Monday, as of 11:39, U.S. oil rose 0.17%, and cloth oil rose 0.32%. Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data came in sharply better than expected, reducing the appeal of dollar-denominated commodity crude oil. In addition, the market may have eased its trading geography, and the market is concerned about whether the Palestinian-Israeli conflict can reach a truce agreement, which limits the rise in oil prices
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