Last week, nickel prices fluctuated downward, falling for five consecutive days during the week. The macro positive sentiment in the early part of the week was gradually digested by the disk, among which the approval of Indonesian nickel ore RKAB was slow but increased compared with last week's data, and the short-term nickel ore supply tension was eased to a certain extent. On the macro front, the important event this week is the first interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in 2024, which is maintained at 5.25%-5.50%, which is in line with market expectations. This is the fourth consecutive time that the Fed has remained on hold since its September meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell bluntly said that he did not think the first interest rate cut would occur in March, which hit the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, causing the market to decline in trading sentiment and transmitting it to the non-ferrous sector. Subsequent February 2, the latest U.S. macro data U.S. initial jobless claims (10,000) for the week to January 27 recorded 224,000, up 09,000 from the previous value, and the unemployment data released after the Fed meeting showed the weakness of the U.S. job market, which allowed investors to regain confidence in the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts this year. From a fundamental point of view, the frequency of transactions between upstream and downstream enterprises near the Spring Festival holiday fell slightly compared with mid-January, but the overall spot market transaction atmosphere is still relatively warm. In terms of inventory, domestic and foreign inventories were still accumulated last week, domestic inventories exceeded 20,000, overseas inventories exceeded 70,000 tons, and on the supply side, according to SMM research, the output of electronickel rose month-on-month in January, the main reason for which was that nickel prices during January had recovered compared with December, and most of the electronickel factories were able to produce profitably. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream gradually enters the holiday state, the pace of procurement slows down, and the activity of the overall spot market decreases slightly. In addition, according to SMM research, downstream post-holiday procurement is expected to occur in late February. On the whole, the current Shanghai nickel market is full of sentiment between long and short, and it shows a certain strength before the holiday.
Pure nickel: Nickel prices fluctuated downward last week, falling for five consecutive days in a week. The macro positive sentiment in the early part of the week was gradually digested by the disk, among which the approval of Indonesian nickel ore RKAB was slow but increased compared with last week's data, and the short-term nickel ore supply tension was eased to a certain extent. On the macro front, the important event this week is the first interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve in 2024, which is maintained at 5.25%-5.50%, which is in line with market expectations. This is the fourth consecutive time that the Fed has remained on hold since its September meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell bluntly said that he did not think the first interest rate cut would occur in March, which hit the market's optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year, causing the market to decline in trading sentiment and transmitting it to the non-ferrous sector. Subsequent February 2, the latest U.S. macro data U.S. initial jobless claims (10,000) for the week to January 27 recorded 224,000, up 09,000 from the previous value, and the unemployment data released after the Fed meeting showed the weakness of the U.S. job market, which allowed investors to regain confidence in the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts this year. From a fundamental point of view, the frequency of transactions between upstream and downstream enterprises near the Spring Festival holiday fell slightly compared with mid-January, but the overall spot market transaction atmosphere is still relatively warm. In terms of inventory, domestic and foreign inventories were still accumulated last week, domestic inventories exceeded 20,000, overseas inventories exceeded 70,000 tons, and on the supply side, according to SMM research, the output of electronickel rose month-on-month in January, the main reason for which was that nickel prices during January had recovered compared with December, and most of the electronickel factories were able to produce profitably. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream gradually enters the holiday state, the pace of procurement slows down, and the activity of the overall spot market decreases slightly. In addition, according to SMM research, downstream post-holiday procurement is expected to occur in late February. On the whole, the current Shanghai nickel market is full of sentiment between long and short, and it shows a certain strength before the holiday.
Ferronickel: The average price of SMM8-12% high-nickel pig iron during the week was 931.25 yuan/nickel point (ex-factory tax included), which was 1.5 yuan/nickel point higher than the average price last week, and the price of ferronickel showed a slight rebound trend during the week. From a fundamental point of view, on the supply side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, some iron mills entered the stage of shutdown in January, and it is expected that China's high-nickel pig iron production will be further reduced in February. In addition, according to SMM research, the inventory of ferronickel at the end of January fell by 1.78% month-on-month. On the demand side, most of the steel mills have completed the pre-holiday reserve, and some steel mills have no pre-holiday reserve demand and are expected to replenish the warehouse after the year. Also affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of steel mills will decline during February. To sum up, the current supply and demand of ferronickel is still weak, and it is expected that the output increment of subsequent steel mills will be limited, and the loose supply of ferronickel will be difficult to change, and it is expected that the rebound space of ferronickel prices is limited.
Nickel sulfate: On February 1, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulfate index price was 26,623 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last Thursday, and the price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was 26,600-27,200 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 300 yuan/ton from last Thursday. Nickel sulphate prices continued to rise slightly last week. Since last week, the transaction coefficient of the nickel sulfate market is mostly based on the SMM low range flat water - average price flat water. Compared with the previous week's low range of 98-low flat water, the coefficient rose slightly again, the main reason is that the current market spot is difficult to find, but some downstream ternary precursor enterprises still have pre-holiday nickel sulfate procurement demand. On the demand side, first, the overseas orders of some ternary precursor companies have substantially improved; Second, affected by the expectation of some ternary precursor enterprises or storage fakes during the Spring Festival, part of the demand for February was overdrawn in advance, and the warehouse was just needed to be replenished before the holiday; Third, during the Spring Festival, due to the influence of logistics factors and poor shipments, some ternary precursor companies accelerated the procurement rhythm of nickel sulfate; Fourth, some salt factories are expected to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and the impulse is expected to remain after March, so there is a strong bullish sentiment in March; Fifth, the postponement of the arrival of Indonesian nickel sulfate in Hong Kong has exacerbated the current tight supply of nickel sulfate. To sum up, the current fundamentals have strong support for nickel sulfate prices. This week, due to the approaching Spring Festival, some companies still have the impact of procurement demand, and the transaction still exists. On the raw material side, MHP quotations maintained a high level of 76-78 this week. To sum up, the current prices of raw materials and finished products are on the strong side. It is expected that next week, close to the Spring Festival, the activity of inquiry transactions may be low, but affected by tight supply, the price of nickel sulfate may rise slightly again, and the operating range is expected to be 26,900-27,300 yuan/ton.
Stainless steel: Last week, the spot price of stainless steel remained stable. On February 1, SMM304 cold-rolled burr price was 14,000-14,200 yuan/ton, SS contract fluctuated downward, and the shock fell below 13,700 yuan/ton. Last week, the stainless steel social inventory rose 1.12% week-on-week and 3.68% month-on-month, mainly because shipping was basically suspended last week, and the land transportation in terms of freight only maintained 1/3 of the previous period. At the same time, downstream procurement has been met in early January, procurement demand has slowed down, and there is only sporadic replenishment of downstream in terms of transactions, and inventory has accumulated slightly. According to SMM research, some steel mills in February entered the Spring Festival during the Spring Festival holiday, and the overall output declined compared with January for only 29 days. Last week, the stainless steel spot market transaction was relatively light, large traders entered the holiday at the end of this week, supply and demand were weak in the short term, and it is expected that the spot price of stainless steel will maintain the current price next week.
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