SMM

SMM Nickel Market Morning Comment Fully(Mar 20)
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 139,600 yuan/mt, and closed at 137,460 yuan/mt, down 2,490 yuan/mt. Trading volume fell by 15,008 lots, and open interest decreased by 859 lots. On the macro front, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits stood at 209,000 in the week ending Mar 9, lower than the market forecast and previous value, indicating that the US job market recovered. Fundamentally, Indonesia said that it had completed the approval of 107 companies, and the progress of nickel ore approval accelerated. The market's expectations for tight supply of raw materials began to weaken, so the prices fell sharply in the afternoon. In addition, according to SMM research, the tight output of intermediate products is expected to ease in April. Nickel price is expected to be go down.
Nickel: On March 19, Jinchuan premium reported 1100-1300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 1200 yuan/ton, the average price was flat compared with the previous trading day, and Russian nickel premium quoted -400 to -200 yuan/ton, with an average price of -300 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton higher than the previous trading day. SHFE nickel shock down in the morning. Today, the spot market trading atmosphere has improved, and the downstream procurement intention has recovered slightly. In addition, according to SMM research, some overseas refined nickel may arrive this week, and the supply will increase within the week. Today's nickel bean price 135500-136200 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day spot price down 1650 yuan/ton, today's nickel bean and nickel sulfate price difference is about 1650 yuan/ton. (The price of nickel sulfate is 1650 yuan/ton higher than the price of nickel beans). The price of nickel sulfate continues to rise, and the price gap between electrolytic nickel and the lack of upward power is further narrowed.
Nickel sulfate: On March 19, SMM battery grade nickel sulfate index price was 30104 yuan/ton, 136 yuan/ton higher than the previous working day, battery grade nickel sulfate price was 30,000-30500 yuan/ton, the average price was 200/ ton higher than the previous working day.At present, the MHP coefficient is still at a high level, and the LME nickel coefficient is 80-81. The downstream raw material preparation at the end of March and the beginning of April is relatively positive, therefore, the supply is in tight node, and the upward driving force of the cost side on the nickel salt price still exists.
NPI: On March 19, the average price of SMM8-12% high nickel pig iron was 948 yuan/nickel point (including tax), which was 1 yuan/nickel point lower than the previous working day.On the supply side, although the existing nickel ore quota approval number continues to rise, it still takes time from the mine to the smelter, so the current NPI production operating rate is still at a low level. Although the price of ferrochrome has increased, the mentality of traders at the NPI end has weakened, and some traders have taken the initiative to lower the quotation in the near future, and the mentality of shipment has increased. From the demand side, affected by the upward price of raw materials, the stainless steel disk shows a rebound trend.However, from the point of view of the spot market, the increase in plate prices has not driven the rise in spot prices, mainly because the terminal demand continues to be weak. In summary, the current supply and demand of the NPI industry chain is still weak, and the price of NPI is expected to be weak in the near future.
Stainless steel: On March 19, according to SMM research, today's stainless steel spot market prices as a whole flat, following yesterday's Qingshan opening, the market passed a steel factory closed and reduced the amount of goods, although the opening did not boost the spot price but the market price tends to stabilize, the phenomenon of low price running basically disappeared, 316 production and supply after the overall price decline trend, 200 series stainless steel is affected by weak demand there is a slight reduction, while 400 series although the price of ferrochrome rose but the shipping pressure is larger, the price is more difficult to rise, it is expected that the spot price of stainless steel is temporarily stable in the short term. The morning of 304 cold rolling Wuxi area reported 13750-13950 yuan/ton, 304 hot rolling Wuxi area reported 13200-13300 yuan/ton. 316L cold rolling Wuxi area reported 24300-24900 yuan/ton. 201J1 Cold rolling Wuxi area reported 8750-8850 yuan/ton. 430 cold rolling Wuxi area reported 8100-8200 yuan/ton.SHFE10:30 SS2405 contract price 13865 yuan/ton, Wuxi stainless steel spot premium 55-255 yuan/ton.