SMM

With the 600,000 mt inventory threshold broken, the strong destocking performance of domestic aluminum ingots marked a perfect end to this year's "September-October peak season." As of October 31, 2024, SMM statistics showed domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at 597,000 mt, and domestic circulating aluminum inventory at 471,000 mt, continuing to decrease by 33,000 mt WoW, down 61,000 mt from the end of September. Notably, since H2, domestic aluminum ingot inventory returned to the lowest level in nearly five years, currently 56,000 mt lower YoY. SMM believed the significant mid-week destocking was mainly due to the renewed significant obstruction of cargo shipments from Xinjiang since late October. Despite the reduced regional transfer actions at the end of the peak season, the three major domestic aluminum ingot consumption areas maintained good trading, and stable outflows from warehouses helped deplete inventory. SMM expects that aluminum products in Xinjiang are still mainly backlogged at stations, with a backlog period of about half a month to a month. The shipment issues in Xinjiang are expected to fully recover by mid-to-late November. Therefore, domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to maintain a stable to slightly decreasing trend in early November. SMM would closely monitor the latest developments in Xinjiang aluminum product transportation and the adjustment of the aluminum liquid proportion on the supply side.