SMM

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 21,280 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 21,325 yuan/mt and a low of 21,210 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,275 yuan/mt, down 185 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.86%. The trading volume was 60,500 lots, and the open interest was 189,700 lots, with a daily reduction of 10,800 lots. On the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,629/mt, reached a high of $2,634/mt, a low of $2,571.5/mt, and closed at $2,572/mt, down $48.5/mt, a decrease of 1.85%.
Summary: On the macro front, the easing of the Middle East situation overseas has reduced market risk aversion sentiment, and the US dollar index hit a four-month high, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. Domestically, the first round of fiscal scale was relatively lower than expected, mainly due to the 6 trillion yuan incremental debt funds, which may help improve corporate balance sheets and boost residents' employment and income expectations. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum ingot inventory remained below 600,000 mt during the week. Recently, transportation in north-west China has improved, interrupting the continuous destocking trend of aluminum ingot inventory, so support for aluminum futures prices may weaken. Spot alumina supply remains tight, coupled with production disruptions at some enterprises, causing alumina prices to fluctuate upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and fluctuations in domestic and overseas alumina prices.